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refugee Complex

Dynamic Simulation "under deep uncertainty": "The Syria/Refugee Complex"

In a holistic approach, this simulation model embraces the complexity of refugee flows from Syria to Turkey to the Balkan Route and from there to all major European countries and allows for detailed What-If- and War Gaming Scenarios "under deep uncertainty". The model focusses on the refugee flows for the next five years.

The dynamic simulation model deals with (1.) internal policies within the European countries, (2.) policies with respect to national borders as well as (3.) policies focusing on the effects of ending the conflict in Syria. The following key per­formance indicators for what-if scenarios are set up:

  • Inflow per month for each country and outflow per month for each country
  • Net flow per month for each country
  • Cumulative number of refugees for each country
  • Cumulative number of refugees per capita for each country
  • Economic and political stress for each country



In cooperation with SAT Strategic Advisors for Transformation AG Datenflug realised the interactive visualition of a  dynamic simulation model which was presented during the Munich Strategy Forum at Schloss Elmau on November 22nd, 2015.


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